Climate & Health
Muser Press
Changes in the potential distribution of CHIKV under future climate scenarios. This image illustrates the potential expansion and contraction of risk zones across future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) under four SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585). Red areas represent range expansion (Gain), blue areas represent range contraction (Loss), and gray areas indicate stable threatened areas (Stable). Credit: Zhang et al. (2026) | DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2026.1808175 | Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology | CC BY
Researchers found warming temperatures may expand chikungunya transmission into central Europe, northeastern North America, and East Asia by 2100.
Credit: FotoshopTofs | Pixabay
The team combined mosquito distribution records with 16 climate scenarios and environmental variables to project future transmission risk.
Asian tiger mosquito photographed on a surface
Scientists found Aedes albopictus could drive future spread because it tolerates cooler climates better than other chikungunya vectors.
Close view of Aedes albopictus mosquito
Researchers say temperate regions should strengthen mosquito surveillance, doctor training, and rapid-response systems before local outbreaks emerge.