Summary:
Brazil’s beef industry, a cornerstone of the national economy, emits more than twice the greenhouse gases allowed to meet international climate commitments, according to a study published in Environmental Science and Pollution Research. The analysis warns that, under current practices, emissions from beef cattle could reach between 0.42 and 0.63 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2030, well above the 0.26 GtCO2e threshold aligned with Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.
Using the social cost of carbon (SCC), the researchers estimated that failing to meet these targets could lead to avoidable economic losses of up to USD 42.6 billion. The study emphasizes that transformative shifts in livestock production, particularly those that reduce emissions per unit of beef, could reduce these financial risks while also preserving Brazil’s competitiveness in international markets.
The researchers also examined the potential domestic impact of prioritizing low-emission beef for export, projecting a sharp reduction in per capita beef availability within Brazil if emissions are curbed. With deforestation continuing to drive pasture expansion, especially in the Amazon, the study calls for coordinated public policies, incentives, and investment in sustainable technologies to shift the sector toward a low-carbon future.
Beef production emits more than twice the greenhouse gas targets
One of the pillars of the Brazilian economy and one of the sectors responsible for the highest greenhouse gas emissions, beef production in Brazil, as it is currently practiced, emits more than twice the limit needed to meet international environmental targets. This is one of the conclusions of a study published in the journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research.
The work includes an evaluation of projected emissions scenarios, along with an economic assessment. The researchers calculated that the sector’s emissions could range from 0.42 to 0.63 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2030, while the limit for meeting the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target would be 0.26 GtCO2e. On the other hand, mitigation strategies along the production chain could prevent losses of up to USD 42.6 billion and ensure greater competitiveness.
The NDCs are the commitment that countries made in the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, and which will be reviewed this year leading up to COP30 (United Nations Climate Change Conference) in Belém, in the Brazilian Amazon.
The commitment includes emission reduction targets for countries, with guidelines for transforming the development model, covering all sectors of the economy. The global objective is to limit the increase in the planet’s average temperature to 1.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900). This limit, however, is being put at risk – 2024 was the hottest year in history, with an average global temperature increase of 1.55 °C, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The study was based on the NDC in force until 2024 – a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. In November, Brazil submitted its new contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), committing to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by between 850 million and 1.05 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2035 – a 59% to 67% reduction from 2005 levels.
“We know how important the beef sector is not only for the economy but also for the Brazilian menu. Our goal is not to say: produce or eat less meat, but to start a discussion about the current form of production, which is linked to deforestation, high emissions and without adopting sustainable techniques. That’s not the way to achieve our climate targets. Our findings show that it’s necessary to adopt practices in the production chain that reduce emissions. This also contributes to reducing the costs associated with climate change,” says the article’s first author, biologist Mariana Vieira da Costa, from the Laboratory of Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution (LESPA) at the Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP) in Brazil.
In their work, the authors used the so-called social cost of carbon (SCC), a way of quantifying the financial impact of emissions on society and a reference for climate policy and decision-making.
The SCC represents the economic cost of emitting one ton of CO2, including non-commercial impacts on the environment and human health, and incorporating consequences such as agricultural losses and damage from extreme weather events. These costs can be reduced or redirected to investments in more sustainable livestock production practices through public policies and accessible credit lines.
According to the study, the potential cost savings range from USD 18.8 billion to USD 42.6 billion by 2030, depending on whether the targets are met.
In 2023, Brazil set a record for beef exports, selling 2.29 million tons to 157 countries and generating USD 10.55 billion in sales. The scientists considered the importance of beef exports to Brazil by calculating how much would be available for domestic consumption in 2030 if production were reduced to stay within the 0.26 GtCO2e emission limit needed to meet the NDC. The result was between 2 and 10 kg of beef per capita (per year).
“I’ve always wanted to study the relationship between cattle farming and climate change. At first, we had trouble finding more refined data. That’s why we created our indicator,” adds Costa, who was supervised by Professor Simone Miraglia, head of LESPA-UNIFESP and co-author of the article with biologist Daniela Debone.
For Miraglia, the results are important because, without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the increase in the global average temperature will lead to additional economic impacts, such as a reduction in agricultural production, an increase in forest fires and an increase in health impacts, including mortality.
Scenario
In a period of almost four decades (1985 to 2022), the agricultural area in Brazil has grown by 50% to 282.5 million hectares – a third of the national territory. Of this total, 58% is pasture (currently at 164.3 million hectares), according to a study by MapBiomas (.pdf), a collaborative network made up of NGOs, universities and technology startups that maps land cover and land use in Brazil.
About 64% of the expansion of agriculture was due to deforestation for pasture (64.5 million hectares). This growth occurred mainly in the Amazon, causing the biome to overtake the Cerrado (Brazil’s savannah-like biome) in terms of pasture area.
The scientists point to the need for synergy between research and rural producers to promote more efficient, low-emission production practices and to seek environmentally sustainable techniques and technologies. They also highlight the role that the federal government can play in brokering and integrating research and technology adoption by producers.
They point out that although the ABC+ Plan currently facilitates investments in intensive practices by livestock farmers, their adoption is still low. The Plan for Adaptation and Low Carbon Emissions in Agriculture (ABC+) is an agenda of the Brazilian government to be implemented between 2020 and 2030, which provides continuity to the sectoral policy to combat climate change in the agricultural sector. In addition to creating and strengthening mechanisms for the adoption of sustainable production systems and practices, it seeks to diversify financial and fiscal sources and instruments.
Costa points out that the diversification of incentives, such as tax exemptions and the introduction of carbon credits, is essential to stimulate and promote significant changes on a large scale in the sector.
The work was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) through a scholarship for Costa and another project with an approach to analyzing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and health indicators.
Journal Reference:
da Costa, M.V., Debone, D. & Miraglia, S.G.E.K., ‘Brazilian beef production and GHG emission – social cost of carbon and perspectives for climate change mitigation’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 32, 5245–5258 (2025). DOI: 10.1007/s11356-025-36022-1
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Luciana Constantino | FAPESP
Featured image credit: Juliana e Mariana Amorim | Unsplash
