Dry conditions that emerged across East Africa in September 2025 have since developed into a severe drought affecting large parts of the Horn of Africa. Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia and eastern Kenya have been among the most exposed areas, where limited rainfall and persistent heat have placed growing strain on agriculture, water availability and food security.
The evolution of the drought can be tracked using the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated from data provided by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). This index reflects changes in water balance by combining precipitation with evaporative demand driven by temperature. In late September 2025, SPEI values declined sharply in the border regions between Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, indicating the onset of drought conditions. Over the following months, negative values expanded and intensified, pointing to increasing severity across much of East Africa by December 2025.
Soil moisture levels fell steadily during this period, reaching well below normal values in several areas by early January 2026. Vegetation conditions deteriorated in parallel, particularly in regions dependent on seasonal rainfall. In December, most of East Africa experienced warmer-than-average temperatures compared with the 1991–2020 baseline, with anomalies exceeding 2 °C across north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and south-western Somalia. These conditions accelerated water loss from soils and crops, compounding the effects of reduced rainfall.
Agricultural impacts have been widespread. Low soil moisture and prolonged heat have reduced crop growth and pasture availability, increasing the risk of crop failures and yield losses. Rain-fed farming systems, which dominate much of the region, have been particularly vulnerable to these combined stresses. Livestock conditions have also worsened, with reduced grazing areas and water access contributing to rising mortality in some locations.
The drought has had serious humanitarian consequences. Data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicate emergency-level food insecurity in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya as of January 2026. In Somalia alone, an estimated 4.6 million people have already been affected, with more than 135,000 displaced as livelihoods have become increasingly difficult to sustain. Rising cereal prices and increasing levels of acute malnutrition among children have added to the pressure on households across the region.
Seasonal forecasts offer limited clarity for the months ahead. While near-average rainfall is possible in some areas, drier-than-average conditions are still projected for parts of southern Somalia and south-eastern Kenya, and forecast uncertainty remains high. Different scenarios could lead to markedly different outcomes, making close monitoring essential.
The situation illustrates how quickly drought conditions can develop when reduced rainfall coincides with elevated temperatures, and how closely environmental stress, food production and humanitarian risk are linked in East Africa.
Reference:
Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Magni, D., Ficchì, A. et al., ‘Drought in East Africa – January 2026 – GDO analytical report’, Publications Office of the European Union (2026). DOI: 10.2760/5251406
Featured image credit: European Union, Copernicus Emergency Management Service
