Geneva,Ā Switzerland | AFP | Muser NewsDesk
El NiƱo will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather, the United Nations’ weather and climate agency warned Friday.
The World Meteorological Organization said the climate phenomenon had already set in, and would quickly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.
El NiƱo warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
Conditions oscillate between El NiƱo and its opposite La NiƱa, with neutral conditions in between.
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards “a rapid development into a strong El NiƱo event during July-September”.
The UN agency classifies El NiƱo events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.
“El NiƱo conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood ofā¦ extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the WMO said.
Heatwave risks
The Geneva-based agency said forecasts produced by global climate centres, using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
“Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2 Ā°C in key monitoring regions,” it said.
The models show “remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook”, the WMO said.
“El NiƱo is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe.
“Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.”
The last El NiƱo contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55 Ā°C āÆabove the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Read also: Temperatures likely to remain at record levels in 2026-2030: UN
While El NiƱo usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later down the line.
“El NiƱo conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.
“This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions.”
The WMO said it was stepping up early warning support to help guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and health.
“Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Saulo.
Temperature impact
The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north — covering nearly all populated areas outside the polar regions.
And the July to September rainfall outlook is consistent with a strengthening El NiƱo, with above-normal rainfall forecast in areas including the southwestern United States, and below normal forecast across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El NiƱo events.
However, the agency believes it can amplify the associated effects, because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
During the northern hemisphere summer, warm waters associated with El NiƱo can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while hindering their development in the Atlantic Ocean.
On Thursday, Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 800 of its 1,800 municipalities, due to the “imminent danger” of heavy rains linked to El NiƱo.
More than 9.3 million people in Peru were warned of a very high risk from flooding and landslides.
rjm/tw
Ā© Agence France-Presse
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Robin Millard | AFP
Updated 3 July 2026 – 10:23
Featured image credit: KĆ©vin JINER | Unsplash
