Summary:
Temporary overshoot of global temperature targets – particularly the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C goal – is now considered likely unavoidable, according to new research published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study, led by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) with contributions from 14 research institutions across 10 countries, examines how climate overshoot has evolved from a modelling concept into a structural feature of many climate mitigation scenarios.
Researchers trace the history of overshoot scenarios over the past three decades, showing how they originally served as tools to explore ambitious climate targets. Today, they increasingly reflect the tension between rising emissions and efforts to limit global warming. The study finds that limited overshoot – such as temporary warming to around 1.8 °C – does not significantly alter the expected timeline for reaching global net-zero carbon dioxide emissions, which remains projected between 2050 and 2060.
However, overshoot could influence how climate impacts and mitigation efforts unfold over time. Even small temporary increases in global temperature raise the likelihood of extreme events and may shift mitigation burdens across generations. The authors also note that overshoot would increase reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and highlight the need for climate models that better integrate physical, ecological and socio-economic factors.
— Press Release —
Overshoot reshapes climate strategies – but the path to net zero remains unchanged
Temporary climate overshoot – especially for 1.5 °C – is now unavoidable. In this Perspective, we show how overshoot emerged in mitigation pathways over the past three decades, from a modelling device for exploring stringent climate goals to an inevitable feature of scenarios. Depending on its extent, overshoot affects the pace and feasibility of emissions reductions, the distribution of socio-economic outcomes, and climate risks in time and space.
We show that the magnitude and consequences of overshoot depend not only on biophysical characteristics and model assumptions but equally on scenario design and social and institutional factors. We outline priorities for a new generation of models and scenarios that integrate different climate sciences, supporting robust climate strategies in a world of overshoot.
Temporary overshoot of global temperature targets – particularly the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement – is no longer just a modelling concept.
New research, published in Nature Climate Change and led by the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC) in collaboration with 14 research institutions from 10 countries, traces how overshoot has evolved over the past three decades, from a scenario tool used to explore ambitious targets to a structural feature of climate scenarios, reflecting the tension between more ambitious temperature targets and continued emissions growth. What began as a modelling tool to explore climate goals has become an almost inevitable outcome in pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement.
The research shows that limited overshoot – for example, temporary warming to around 1.8 °C – does not change the fundamental timeline to global net zero CO₂ emissions, still expected between 2050 and 2060.
“In a world of limited overshoot, the core objective of strong decarbonization and net zero remains intact,” says CMCC’s scientist Massimo Tavoni. “What overshoot does, however, is to reshape how the transition unfolds, how we implement the transition, manage risks, and ensure policies are fair and effective.”
Although the timeline for reaching net-zero emissions remains unchanged, overshoot changes how climate impacts and mitigation efforts are felt over time. Even small overshoots make extreme events more likely, with greater social and economic consequences. They can also shift mitigation burdens across generations, potentially placing more strain on future societies.
The long-term effects depend on how persistent climate damages turn out to be – an area where significant uncertainty remains.
“If impacts cause lasting physical or social disruptions, temporary overshoot could leave enduring consequences even after temperatures fall,” says Tavoni. “If damages are more reversible and adaptation measures are effective, the long-term impacts may be more limited. Understanding this persistence is crucial to understanding recovery from overshoot.”
Overshoot also increases the demand for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, since excess CO₂ must be actively removed for temperatures to decline. Yet the study emphasizes that CDR is needed even in pathways with limited overshoot, and that its scale ultimately depends more on policy choices than on overshoot itself. Larger overshoots beyond Paris targets, however, create deep uncertainties, potentially requiring extensive mitigation measures whose feasibility and implications are still largely unknown.
The study underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches that combine physical climate science, ecological systems, socio-economic processes, and uncertainty analysis. By integrating these dimensions, future models can better inform climate strategies in a world where temporary overshoot is unavoidable.
“Overshoot is no longer just an abstract scenario,” adds Tavoni. “It is a reality that both scientists and policymakers must navigate carefully. Addressing overshoot effectively requires integrating physical, ecological, and socio-economic dimensions, and carefully accounting for uncertainty in future scenarios. Indeed, we can remain on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals.”
Journal Reference:
Tavoni, M., Bauer, N., Drouet, L. et al., ‘Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies’, Nature Climate Change (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)
Featured image credit: Sean Hurley | Pixabay
