Summary:
Sorghum occupies only about 0.1% of European cropland, yet its tolerance of heat and drought makes it increasingly relevant as farming conditions shift across the continent. Researchers from the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE) and AgroParisTech examined how its production could develop under future climate conditions and what role the crop might play in livestock feed supply.
A machine-learning model trained on historical yields from France, Italy, Spain and the United States was combined with multiple climate scenarios. The projections indicate a geographical shift, with yields falling by up to 1.5 tonnes per hectare in parts of southern Europe while increasing by as much as 3 tonnes per hectare in northern regions by the end of the century.
Areas supporting high and stable production are projected to expand from 22% of European cropland under historical conditions to 29–34% by 2100. Growing sorghum once every three years could also supply the equivalent of at least 90% of the maize currently used for livestock feed in Europe.
Reported in Earth’s Future, the research presents sorghum as an option for diversifying feed production as European agriculture adjusts to hotter and drier summers.
— Press Release —
Sorghum may help European agriculture face climate change
Research by INRAE and AgroParisTech suggests that global warming could have an overall positive effect on sorghum yields in Europe. Sorghum is a promising alternative to maize in livestock feed. Additionally, the crop requires less water and can tolerate higher temperatures. The researchers carried out simulations that used past climate data and future climate scenarios with the broader goal of developing new strategies for European agriculture.
Their results were published in Earth’s Future.
Maize is the main cereal crop used in livestock feed, but its yields reached a relative all-time low in the EU this year. The time has come to rethink the use of this water-intensive crop.
Sorghum is generally seen as a promising alternative to maize, given its tolerance of high temperatures and low water availability. The crop is frequently grown in arid areas, and most of its global production occurs in African countries (47%) and the United States (17%).
In Europe, climate change is leading to much hotter conditions and water scarcity. Thus, the researchers behind this new study wanted to explore the potential for sorghum production in this continent, where the crop remains rare. At present, sorghum is grown on just 0.1% of European cropland. Furthermore, the use of sorghum in livestock feed has yet to be examined in Europe as a whole, as has the crop’s relationship with climate change.
Sorghum production in the face of climate change
The researchers found that, within Europe, climate change should have a positive overall impact on sorghum yields. However, there may be some regional variation, namely increased yields in northern Europe and slightly decreased yields in southern Europe. Depending on the specific climate change scenario, overall mean sorghum production should climb from 3 tonnes/ha under current climatic conditions to 3.4–3.8 tonnes/ha under future climate conditions (i.e., by 2050–2100). Geographical areas with high and stable sorghum production are predicted to expand – increasing from 22% of European cropland under current climatic conditions to 29–34% by the end of the century.
Therefore, the results of this study indicate that, if grown one year out of three, sorghum could potentially replace around 90% of the maize currently used in livestock feed. Sorghum represents a climate-resilient alternative to maize, given its robustness when temperatures are high and water is scarce. In contrast, maize is frequently irrigated (38% of irrigated cropland in France is growing maize).
Employing historical data to predict future trends
As part of the study, the researchers used a machine-learning model capable of predicting grain sorghum yields based on key climate parameters (e.g., relative humidity, temperature, precipitation). The model was trained on historical sorghum yields and then coupled with the climate data to generate predictions for two future target periods: the mid- and late 21st century. To this end, the researchers employed 20 climate change scenarios, which had themselves been generated using 5 climate models. As a result, they were able to arrive at robust conclusions regarding potential sorghum production.
The study’s results highlight that sorghum could help European agriculture adapt to climate change. Within France, sorghum production and the crop’s use in livestock feed could help deal with major challenges, such as the management of water resources. The water saved could be utilised for other crops, with a view to increasing feed self-sufficiency in France.
Journal Reference:
Davoudkhani, M., Guilpart, N., Makowski, D., Viovy, N., Ciais, P., & Lauerwald, R., ‘Potential for expanding sorghum production in Europe in the face of climate change’, Earth’s Future 14, 10: e2025EF007503 (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007503
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE)
Featured image credit: xurui000 | Unsplash
