Global coal consumption, having rebounded to an all-time high in 2024, is projected to stabilize in the coming years, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Coal 2024 report. The plateau, expected through 2027, reflects the growing influence of renewable energy sources in meeting the surging global demand for electricity.
The report highlights that coal demand will reach 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, setting a record before leveling off as countries expand renewable power capacities. China, the world’s largest coal consumer, remains pivotal in shaping global trends. The country currently accounts for one-third of global coal consumption, with much of it powering its electricity sector. However, efforts to diversify energy sources – including significant investments in solar photovoltaics, wind energy, and nuclear power – are expected to limit further increases in coal use.
The IEA notes that electricity consumption is rising sharply worldwide due to factors such as the electrification of transport and heating, the growing need for cooling, and increasing usage in emerging sectors like data centers. In China alone, electricity demand is accelerating, but weather variability and renewable energy output could cause fluctuations in coal consumption by as much as 140 million tonnes annually through 2027.
“The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is reshaping the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s coal use,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “As a result, our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply. However, weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term.”
In advanced economies, coal consumption has already peaked and is forecasted to decline further. This trend is being driven by strong policies, such as the European Union’s clean energy mandates, and alternative power options, including abundant low-cost natural gas in North America.
Meanwhile, emerging economies in Asia, including India, Indonesia, and Viet Nam, are experiencing increasing coal demand. This growth is primarily driven by the power sector, fueled by economic expansion, population growth, and rising electricity needs. Industrial coal use is also climbing in these regions.
Coal production reached its highest level in 2024, though the report projects that output will stabilize as renewable energy and structural shifts in the energy market take hold. Similarly, global coal trade is set to reach 1.55 billion tonnes by year’s end but is expected to contract in the medium term, with thermal coal experiencing the sharpest declines.
Despite this, Asia will remain the hub of international coal trade, both as the largest importer – with nations such as China, India, and Japan – and exporter, led by countries like Indonesia and Australia.
The IEA report stresses the critical role of clean energy technologies in moderating coal demand while acknowledging the complexities of weather patterns and regional electricity demands. As renewables gain momentum, the outlook suggests a more balanced global energy mix, but the transition remains shaped by regional dynamics and policy developments.
More information:
IEA (2024), Coal 2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2024 | CC BY 4.0
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by International Energy Agency (IEA)
Featured image credit: Freepik
