Summary:
Europe’s waste streams could supply more than half of the continent’s future critical raw material demand by 2050, according to a major new EU-funded assessment from the FutuRaM project. The report presents the first comprehensive mapping of Europe’s “urban mine” – metals and minerals embedded in discarded electronics, batteries, vehicles, industrial residues, buildings, and renewable energy infrastructure.
The report analyzed 42 critical raw materials across waste streams in the EU27 plus the UK, Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway. They estimate Europe could recover between 4.1 and 5.7 million tonnes of critical raw materials annually by 2050, depending on future recovery systems and circular economy measures. Under a circular economy scenario, secondary materials could replace up to 56% of Europe’s primary critical raw material demand.
The project identifies significant recovery potential in waste electrical and electronic equipment, batteries, end-of-life vehicles, construction waste, slags and ashes, mining waste, and dismantled wind turbines. In 2022, products containing 5.2 million tonnes of critical raw materials were placed on the European market, compared with 2.1 million tonnes entering waste streams and only 1.4 million tonnes being recovered.
Battery-related materials are expected to see the strongest growth. By 2050, lithium recovery could rise from under 1,000 tonnes today to as much as 52,000 tonnes annually, cobalt recovery could reach 40,000 tonnes, and nickel recovery could exceed 170,000 tonnes per year. Recovery of rare earth elements used in wind turbines and electric motors is also projected to increase significantly.
The report highlights major weaknesses in current recycling systems. Nearly half of Europe’s electronic waste is handled outside compliant recycling channels, while large quantities of batteries and end-of-life vehicles are improperly discarded, exported, or lost through informal flows. Many valuable materials, especially rare earth elements, are still barely recovered today.
Beyond reducing reliance on imported materials from countries such as China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia, the researchers say stronger recycling systems could also deliver major climate benefits. By 2050, avoided emissions from secondary raw material recovery could reach 81–273 Mt CO₂e annually, substantially outweighing emissions from recycling operations themselves.
All project data are now available through the Urban Mine Platform, an online tool designed to help policymakers, industry, and investors track critical raw materials across European waste streams. The project also introduced a new decision-making framework, SARA4UNFC, aimed at evaluating the technical, economic, social, and environmental viability of recycling projects.
The report calls for stronger EU-wide reporting systems, tighter enforcement against illegal waste flows, expanded recycling infrastructure, investment in advanced recovery technologies, and long-term planning to integrate secondary raw materials into Europe’s industrial strategy.
— Press Release —
By 2050 Europe’s waste could supply over half of critical material demand
EU-funded experts today delivered the most comprehensive assessment ever of Europe’s ‘urban mine’ – materials stocks and waste streams containing a vast, an underutilized reservoir of metals and minerals essential for clean energy, digital technologies, and modern industry.
FutuRaM (Future Availability of Secondary Raw Materials) project researchers debuted a comprehensive mapping of critical raw materials (CRMs) embedded in discarded products, industrial residues, and demolished infrastructure across the EU27+4 (EU, UK, Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway).
The unprecedented survey involved analysis of 42 critical elements contained in several waste streams, from electronic waste, vehicles and their batteries to wind turbines, slags and ashes and building construction and demolition debris.
It revealed that recovery systems could, by 2050, enable Europe to recover between 4.1 and 5.7 million tonnes of CRMs annually, with primary substitution potential ranging from up to 33% under business-as-usual conditions, up to 47% with improved recovery systems and 56% under a circular economy scenario, if the quality of secondary raw materials can substitute for primary.
This would reduce European reliance on imported materials and strengthen supply security for key technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable solar and wind energy.
A key advance of the project is a comprehensive overview for multiple waste streams from items placed on the market to waste generation with a new recovery model that distinguishes between critical raw materials present in waste and those available as secondary raw materials after treatment, addressing a major limitation in previous assessments and allowing more policy-relevant estimates of supply potential.
All the project data are now available through the Urban Mine Platform (urbanmineplatform.eu), a digital tool that helps visualize the availability of CRMs across Europe’s waste streams, analyzed using a common framework that tracks flows from products and components down to individual materials and chemical elements.
The FutuRaM (Future Availability of Secondary Raw Materials) report and the Urban Mine Platform offers a detailed guide for CRMs for the EU27+4 countries which are today largely supplied by China (e.g. rare earth metals, lithium and cobalt), the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt), Australia (lithium), South Africa (platinum), and Turkey (boron).
A waste landscape rich in strategic opportunity
The platform and final report brings together harmonized data on seven major waste streams:
- Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE)
- Waste batteries
- End-of-life vehicles
- Construction and demolition waste from buildings
- Slags and ashes from industrial processes
- Mining waste
- Dismantled wind turbines
It confirms that 5.2 million tonnes of CRMs embedded in products were placed on the market in 2022, compared to 2.1 million tonnes embedded in waste and 1.4 million tonnes recovered, highlighting both the scale of material flows and the gap between consumption and recovery.
By 2050, CRMs in products placed on the market could rise to between 8.4 and 12.2 million tonnes annually as waste generation reaches 5.2 to 6.4 million tonnes, and recovery could reach 4.7 to 5.7 million tonnes underscoring the growing strategic importance of recycling systems.
Many strategically important materials, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, are largely lost during collection and/or waste processing today.
Five CRMs – including platinum, and rhodium – have recovery rates of over 80% thanks largely to well-established collection and processing routes.
Eight others, including aluminium, copper, palladium, and nickel fall in the 40–80% range, where collection and treatment infrastructure is in place but losses remain significant.
And for 22 CRMs, recovery yields less than one tonne per year across the entire EU27+4 (2022 data) , with most rare earth elements in this category.
According to the report, with the right legislative and industrial choices made now, within 24 years some 17 CRMs, including cobalt, lithium, and rare earth metals such as dysprosium and neodymium, could achieve recovery rates above 80%.
A fast-growing waste stream
The volume of products placed on the market that contain CRMs is expected to grow sharply as electrification, renewable energy deployment, and digitalization accelerate. This increase in the mass of CRMs in the urban mine leads to an increase in the amount that could be recovered in the future.
The research found that by 2050, aluminium recovery could grow from about 0.9 million tonnes per year today to as much as 2.7 – 3.5 million tonnes, while copper recovery could rise from 0.3 million tonnes to as much as 0.8 – 1.4 million tonnes annually.
Notably, some of the most valuable materials are the least likely to pass through formal recycling systems as the market value of elements such as gold drives diversion of products into informal and often untracked flows.
Some of the fastest-growing use of CRMs are associated with the transition to electric mobility and renewable energy, leading to greater potential for recovery.
For example:
- Lithium recovery could increase from much less than 1,000 tonnes today to 30,000–52,000 tonnes per year by 2050.
- Cobalt recovery could grow from about 1,000 tonnes to as much as 25, 000 – 40,000 tonnes annually.
- Nickel recovery could increase from about 4,000 tonnes to more than 103,000 – 171,000 tonnes per year.
These increases are driven largely by the expected surge in battery waste as electric vehicles and energy-storage systems reach the end of their life cycles.
Rare earth elements used in wind turbines, WEEE and electric motors are also projected to grow significantly, highlighting the importance of developing recycling technologies for permanent magnets.
Climate dividend: comparable to avoiding the CO₂e emissions of Spain
Beyond supply security, recovering critical raw materials from waste also delivers significant environmental benefits.
In recent years, the annual recovery of secondary raw materials from the analyzed European waste streams generated about 38 Mt of direct emissions but avoided 77 Mt through reduced primary extraction, resulting in a net climate benefit of roughly 39 Mt CO₂-equivalent.
By 2050 avoided emissions could reach between 81 Mt and 273 Mt CO₂ equivalent per year, far outweighing direct processing emissions of 71–80 Mt – reinforcing recycling as a major climate mitigation strategy.
Closing the gaps in Europe’s recycling system
Despite the enormous potential, the report highlights major gaps in current collection and recycling systems.
For example, despite Europe being a global leader in WEEE management, nearly half of its electronic waste is handled outside compliant recycling systems, and part of the losses even arise in compliant waste management, leading to the most significant (500 kilotonnes) losses of critical raw materials in 2022.
Similarly, many batteries are improperly discarded or exported , while a large number of end-of-life vehicles remain outside official treatment channels or exported in second hand vehicles outside the EU, leading to losses of over 200 kilotonnes of critical raw materials in 2022.
Improving collection rates, tracking systems, and recycling infrastructure could therefore unlock substantial additional supplies of critical materials.
In the case of batteries, current recycling capacity for lithium-ion technologies is still expanding. Significant quantities of partially processed battery materials known as “black mass” are exported from Europe, meaning valuable resources are not fully recovered within the region.
Key gaps are:
- Making recycling projects more viable in Europe
- Investing in better waste sorting and mechanical treatment/dismantling
- Investing in innovative recycling techniques
A new approach
A new approach developed under the FutuRaM project aims to bring order and clarity to one of the most complex challenges in the circular economy: deciding which recycling projects are worth pursuing. Building on the United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC), an internationally-recognized system to assess mining and energy projects, the new tool, known as SARA4UNFC, adapts those principles to waste and recycling. It allows governments, investors, and industry to evaluate not just whether valuable materials exist in waste streams, but whether they can realistically be recovered in a way that is technically feasible, economically viable, and socially and environmentally responsible.
SARA4UNFC is a decision-making tool for turning waste into a reliable source of CRMs. It helps compare different recycling options, identify the most promising projects, and reduce uncertainty for investment in infrastructure and new technologies. By providing a consistent framework across multiple waste streams and value chains, it also improves communication between stakeholders, from policymakers to private investors, and supports implementation of the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act. Ultimately, the goal is to accelerate the shift from pilot projects to large-scale recovery systems, making secondary raw materials a dependable part of future supply chains.
Policy recommendations
The report outlines a set of policy actions to unlock Europe’s urban mine potential, including:
- Establish a harmonised EU framework for secondary raw materials reporting and classification. A common system would ensure consistent, comparable data across Member States, enabling more accurate tracking of critical materials and better-informed policy decisions.
- Institutionalise the Urban Mine Platform as core EU data infrastructure. Embedding the platform within EU systems would provide a permanent, trusted source of data to support monitoring, investment planning, and regulatory implementation.
- Apply the UNFC classification system to secondary resources. Extending this globally recognised framework to recycling projects would improve transparency, comparability, and confidence for investors and policymakers.
- Strengthen enforcement and monitoring of illegal waste flows. Tighter controls and better tracking are needed to prevent valuable materials from being lost through informal channels, exports, or non-compliant treatment.
- Support long-term scenario modelling for strategic planning. Using forward-looking models can help policymakers anticipate future material demand and align infrastructure, investment, and regulation accordingly.
- Invest in skills, awareness, and recycling capacity across value chains. Building technical expertise and expanding recycling infrastructure is essential to scale up recovery and fully integrate secondary materials into supply chains.
A foundation for Europe’s circular economy
The FutuRaM project marks a major advance in understanding Europe’s urban mine but further work remains.
Improved data collection, stronger alignment between recovery estimates and real-world recycling processes, and better tracking of waste exports will all be necessary to fully unlock the potential of secondary raw materials.
The datasets and analytical tools developed by the project are designed to remain available and reusable, following international FAIR data principles that ensure information is findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable.
Together, they provide a foundation for long-term monitoring of Europe’s raw-material resources and a practical roadmap for integrating secondary raw materials into Europe’s industrial strategy, strengthening resilience in an increasingly uncertain global supply landscape.
Comments
“Europe’s waste streams already contain vast quantities of critical raw materials. Harnessing this urban mine will be essential for strengthening supply security, supporting the clean-energy transition, and reducing environmental impacts.” – Kees Baldé, Senior Scientific Specialist at United Nations Institute for Training and Research – SCYCLE
“This report allows policymakers, researchers, and industry to assess Europe’s ‘urban mine’ with unprecedented clarity. The data and infrastructure we have built provides a foundation for evidence-based policymaking, long-term monitoring, and strategic investment decisions. Whether Europe realises this potential depends on the choices made now – on legislation, recycling infrastructure, and data collection. Considering these powerful findings, our mindset needs to shift to think of ‘secondary’ sources of CRMs as the new primary source.” – Pascal Leroy, Director General, Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Forum
“By applying the UNFC framework to recycling, we are giving policymakers and investors a common language to evaluate secondary raw materials, something that has long been missing in the transition to a circular economy.” – Soraya Heuss-Aßbichler, Professor of Mineralogy, Ludwig-Maximilians Universität München (LMU)
Report:
Iattoni, G., Yamamoto, T., Horne, J., Charytanowicz, M., Remmen, K., Kippert, K., Wagner, A., de Vries, H., Jayasinghe, B., Urvois, M., Monfort, D., Philippe, A., Heuss-Aßbichler, S., Jimenez, M., Rosmaninho, E., Seabra, S., Dorri, I., Herreras, L., Avila, M., Böcher, C., Das, D., Kalapos, N., Ljunggren, M., Maisel, F., Ravisandiran, S. M., Munizaga-Plaza, J. A., Santillán-Saldivar, J., van Stee, J., Tippner, M., Baldé, C.P., ‘FutuRaM project final report’, ISBN: 978-29-602-8199-6 (electronic), Zenodo (2026). DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19470905
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Terry Collins | Terry Collins Assoc and Magdalena Charytanowicz | WEEE Forum
Featured image credit: Michael | Pexels
