Summary:
More severe fire weather could substantially expand the area burned by wildfires across Europe this century, with the scale of change depending on both greenhouse gas emissions and human fire management. Researchers used two fire models coupled with a dynamic vegetation model to examine how climate, land use, vegetation, population density and management capacity could shape future fire activity.
The study, published in Global Change Biology, projects that fire weather alone could increase average annual burned area by about 39% under the low-emissions (SSP1-2.6) pathway and by nearly 192% under the high-emissions (SSP3-7.0) pathway. The projections compare 2070–2100 with the modelled reference period of 2000–2030. Under higher emissions, increases extend across the Mediterranean and much of Western and Central Europe.
Improved capacity to prevent, detect and suppress fires could substantially reduce burned area relative to scenarios without continued management advances. However, under strong climate change, fire activity still increases in about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions even if management capacity continues improving, indicating that fire management alone may not fully counter worsening fire conditions.
— Press Release —
Area affected by wildfires in Europe could almost triple due to climate change
Increasingly hot, dry and windy conditions could substantially extend the area affected by wildfires across Europe, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research.
In a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), the researchers calculate roughly 39 percent more land would be burnt per year by the end of the century compared to today’s average. In a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), it would be around 192 percent. While emissions reductions are crucial to reducing the impacts of fires, the results also show that improvements in prevention, early detection and firefighting have a key role to help to reduce the scope of area affected.
“Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” said Maik Billing, researcher at PIK and lead author of the study published in Global Change Biology.
“Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8 °C. But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6 °C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires,” Billing added.
The researchers compared the projected annual average in 2070-2100 with the reference modelled period 2000-2030.
Read also: Wildfires caused huge losses in 2025 despite one of the lowest burn areas on record
Investment needed to keep up with rising fire conditions
The paper also employs a second approach developed by the Senckenberg co-authors that models the effects of human action to prevent, detect and fight fires in a world with higher temperatures. Continued improvements in fire management have the potential to reduce burned area by 92 percent in a 1.8 °C future and 72 percent at roughly 3.6 °C. However, the authors cautioned that the results could be optimistic when it comes to the efficacy of fire management in a much warmer climate.
“We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more. If Europe increases investment in wildfire management: training fire crews, proper equipment, good coordination etc., our projections show that this can make a significant difference. But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down and we do not know yet where this point is. The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past,” commented Senckenberg scientist and study co-author Thomas Hickler.
The findings come amid another severe wildfire season in Europe. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), around 550,000 hectares have burned across the EU as of 12 August 2026, about two and a half times the (20-year) average for this point in the year.
“The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources,” says Kirsten Thonicke, PIK scientist and co-author of the study.
“With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size. So, reducing emissions is absolutely essential, together with strengthening local fire management,” Thonicke concluded.
Read also: Latest developments: Europe battles wildfires
Journal Reference:
Billing, M., M. Forrest, S. P. K. Bowring, et al., ‘Future Projections of Burned Area in Europe Highlight the Importance of Human Action’, Global Change Biology 32, 8: e71043 (2026). DOI: 10.1111/gcb.71043
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Featured image: Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery shows the effects of a wildfire on countryside east of Belgrade, Serbia, on 8 August 2026. The satellite mission is being used to provide faster fire-detection data across Europe during the 2026 wildfire season. Credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2026), processed by ESA | European Union
