Summary:
Global climate policy could prevent up to 1.32 million premature deaths a year by 2040 through cleaner air, but new research warns that these health gains will not be shared equally unless cross-border pollution is taken into account. The study, published in Nature Communications, examines how air pollution linked to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) moves between 168 countries under different climate scenarios.
Led by Cardiff University, the researchers used atmospheric modelling and NASA satellite data to assess how the health benefits of emissions cuts are distributed. They found that developing countries are more dependent on pollution reductions abroad than wealthier nations. In sustainable development pathways, the share of health benefits originating outside national borders rises by 8 percent in Africa, and by 53 percent in more fragmented global futures. While the most ambitious climate scenario delivers the largest overall reduction in deaths, the balance of pollution flowing across borders shifts, with some regions remaining heavily reliant on international cooperation.
The authors conclude that climate strategies should evaluate not only total health benefits but also how mitigation policies reshape transboundary air pollution and inequality.
— Press Release —
Climate policy must consider cross-border pollution ‘exchanges’ to address inequality and achieve health benefits, research finds
Ambitious climate action to improve global air quality could save up to 1.32 million lives per year by 2040, according to a new study.
The research, led by Cardiff University, shows how developing countries rely heavily on international cooperation to see these benefits, because much of their pollution originates outside their borders.
The first-of-its-kind study analysed these cross-border pollution “exchanges” for nearly every country – 168 in total.
Their findings reveal how a fragmented world, with little collaborative climate mitigation policymaking, would lead to greater health inequality for poorer nations who have less control over their own air quality.
Their work focuses on the impact of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), exposure to which is the leading environmental risk factor for premature deaths globally.
Lead author Dr Omar Nawaz from Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said: “While we know climate action can benefit public health, most research has ignored how this affects the air pollution that travels across international borders and creates inequalities between countries.
“Our analysis shows how climate mitigation decisions made in wealthy nations directly affect the health of people in the Global South, particularly in Africa and Asia.”
The team, which includes researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder, used advanced atmospheric modelling and NASA satellite data to simulate different future emissions scenarios for the year 2040.
Together with a health burden estimation, these data enabled the researchers to understand who benefits – and assess different levels of dependency – when countries implement climate mitigation policies.
“We wanted to see how the health benefits of action on climate change could differ when there is greater or weaker global cooperation,” explains Dr Nawaz.
“We were surprised to find that although Asia sees the most total benefits from climate action to its large share of the population, African countries are often the most reliant on external action, with the amount of health benefits they get from climate mitigation abroad increasing in fragmented future scenarios.”
The team’s projections also show the balance of pollution flowing across borders may shift, even when total global air pollution declines.
This is vital information for policymakers and global aid organisations as they seek to address climate change challenges amidst domestic and international priorities.
Co-author Professor Daven Henze of the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder added: “Some climate policies could inadvertently make air pollution inequalities worse, specifically for developing nations that might rely heavily on their neighbours for clean air. It’s thus not sufficient to focus only on domestic co-benefits. More inclusive climate strategies entail explicitly accounting for evolving transboundary inequalities.
“Holistic climate policy should therefore evaluate how dependent a nation is on others’ emissions reductions, how mitigation scenarios reshape air-pollution flows across borders, and whether global efforts are helping or harming equity.”
The team plans to develop their analysis further by exploring how climate change itself alters the weather patterns that transport this pollution, as well as looking at other pollutant types like ozone and organic aerosols.
Journal Reference:
Nawaz, M.O., Henze, D.K., ‘National climate action can ameliorate, perpetuate, or exacerbate international air pollution inequalities’, Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-68827-0
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Cardiff University
Featured image credit: Freepik (AI Gen.)
